CORONAVIRUS: A POTENTIAL GLOBAL GROWTH DISRUPTOR:<br>PROCEED WITH CAUTION

CORONAVIRUS: A POTENTIAL GLOBAL GROWTH DISRUPTOR:
PROCEED WITH CAUTION

The new decade started with a bang but soon kicked off with healthcare news that sparked a broader market sell off as a new coronavirus began making global headlines which raised not only health concerns, but also international economic growth concerns. We believe the coronavirus was the primary driver of investors short term risk tradeoffs and the overall market pullback in late January. This is particularly true when you put this potential pandemic in context from a US centric, global macro perspective: Phase one China deal was signed as was the USMCA with Mexico and Canada. In addition to making progress from an international trading standpoint, we have also seen the start of earnings season come in reasonably positive. With higher valuation comes higher expectations; this earning season is imperative for equity markets and could be the primary catalyst to drive equity markets even higher in the upcoming year. Higher valuations, an uncertain presidential race coupled with a growing fear of the spread of coronavirus is a triple threat which could hinder performance in the upcoming quarters. These systemic risks can’t entirely be eliminated, however, through proper portfolio management and a disciplined approach you could hedge these risks or limit the severity of these risks in couple of different ways. While the macro environment continues to be one of reasonable growth, concerns that the grip on that growth is a bit tenuous are certainly still present. These next couple of months is the time to take caution especially after a record setting 2019 on many economic metrics!

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